B
B-BOX
Deal Intelligence for Frontier Markets
v2.0 MVP
Step 1 of 4 · Entry
Frontier pre-investment stress test

Stress-test your project before capital moves.

B-Box builds a 5-year DCF cash flow model from your inputs, then systematically stresses it against 7 frontier realities. Every score point traces back to a computed financial impact — no arbitrary penalties.

For investors: Get a structured first-pass signal before wiring money into a deal.
For founders: See what breaks first — before a bank, investor, or committee does.
For sharing: Privacy-safe scorecard shows verdict without exposing sensitive financials.
Built for fast clarity, not false precision. The score is a transparent frontier stress signal, not investment advice.
Step 2 · Project Context

Project basics

Keep this light. The goal is context, not a full memo.

Used only in the scorecard. Safe to leave blank.
Step 3 · Financial Inputs

Project financials & frontier assumptions

Enter the minimum inputs needed for B-Box to compute Base IRR, then stress it for frontier conditions.

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Operations
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Financing
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Frontier Conditions
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Running frontier stress test

Building DCF model and computing stressed IRRs…

Building 5-year DCF modelcomputing
Computing base IRRqueued
Stressing 7 frontier variablesqueued
Building sensitivity matrixqueued
Computing waterfall impactsqueued
Generating verdictqueued
Methodology

How the score is calculated

B-Box v2 uses a single, unified engine. There are no arbitrary lookup tables. Every score point traces back to a computed financial impact through a 5-year DCF cash flow model.

Step 1: Build DCF Model
A 5-year discounted cash flow model is built from your inputs: capex, revenue, opex, utilization path, inflation, and financing structure. Base IRR is computed at your stated utilization — not 100%.
Step 2: Stress Each Variable
For each of the 7 frontier variables, a stressed IRR is computed where only that variable's stress is applied. The IRR drop measures its true financial impact.
Step 3: Score from IRR Impact
Each variable is scored on an S-curve (sigmoid) based on how much IRR it erodes vs the expected maximum. The curve provides graduated diagnostic signal — small drops barely dent the score, extreme drops push it toward the floor. If the base project is already unprofitable, a continuous penalty degrades all scores further. The composite is the weighted sum.
The 7 Variables & Weights
FX Realism (25%) — capex overrun from FX gap on imported portion
Logistics & Delays (18%) — customs + FX delay reduces Year 1 operating months
Power Infrastructure (15%) — revenue loss from inadequate backup power
Inflation Trajectory (15%) — opex-revenue gap that compounds over 5 years
Working Capital (12%) — coverage adequacy vs clearance + buffer months
Maintenance Reserve (8%) — shortfall vs frontier benchmark hits opex
Technical Dependency (7%) — commissioning delays & retention issues reduce revenue
Country Context
Country modifiers adjust the stress parameters — not the scores. Ethiopia adds FX overrun and customs delay. Nigeria adds FX and inflation stress. Kenya and Rwanda reduce customs delays. Tanzania and Uganda use baseline.
Sensitivity Matrix
The 5×5 matrix recomputes the full cash flow model at each cell with revenue and opex shocks applied. No linear approximation — each cell is a fresh IRR computation.
B-Box v2.0 is a pre-investment stress-test tool, not financial advice. All computations are client-side — no data leaves your browser.
Legal

Privacy Policy

Effective Date: April 7, 2026

B-Box (“the Tool”) is committed to protecting your privacy. This policy explains how we handle information when you use our frontier market pre-investment stress test.

1. Data Collection

No financial data is collected, stored, or transmitted. All computations run entirely in your browser (client-side). Your project inputs, financial figures, and results never leave your device. We do not have access to any data you enter into the tool.

2. Analytics

We use PostHog, a privacy-focused analytics platform, to collect anonymous usage data such as: pages visited, features used (e.g. which step you reach, whether you download a scorecard), device type, and country of access. This helps us improve the tool. No personally identifiable information (PII) is collected. No names, emails, financial inputs, or project details are tracked.

3. Cookies

PostHog may use a first-party cookie to distinguish unique visitors. No third-party advertising cookies are used. You can block cookies in your browser settings without affecting the tool’s functionality.

4. Third-Party Services

The tool loads external resources from Google Fonts (typography), Chart.js (visualizations), and html2canvas (scorecard export). These services may log standard web requests (IP address, browser type). We do not control their data practices.

5. Data Security

Since no user data is transmitted to our servers, there is no data to secure on our end. Your financial inputs exist only in your browser’s memory and are discarded when you close the page.

6. Contact

For privacy-related questions, contact Amir Kelifa at akelifa5@gmail.com.

Legal

Terms of Use

Effective Date: April 7, 2026

By using B-Box (“the Tool”), you agree to the following terms.

1. Nature of the Tool

B-Box is a pre-investment stress-test tool designed for educational and analytical purposes. It provides a structured signal based on the inputs you provide. It is not financial advice, investment advice, or a substitute for professional due diligence.

2. No Warranty

The Tool is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, express or implied. The scores, verdicts, and analyses are based on simplified financial models and should not be the sole basis for any investment decision. Results depend entirely on the accuracy and completeness of inputs you provide.

3. Limitation of Liability

Under no circumstances shall B-Box, its creator, or affiliates be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential, or punitive damages arising from your use of this Tool. This includes, without limitation, loss of profits, data, or investment capital.

4. User Responsibility

You are solely responsible for verifying the accuracy of inputs and for any decisions made based on the Tool’s output. Always consult qualified financial, legal, and technical professionals before making investment decisions.

5. Intellectual Property

The B-Box methodology, scoring engine, interface design, and brand are the intellectual property of Amir Kelifa. You may share results and scorecards for personal and professional use. You may not reverse-engineer, copy, or redistribute the Tool’s source code without written permission.

6. MVP Status

B-Box v2.0 is a minimum viable product under active development. Features, scoring methodology, and variable weights may change without notice as the model is refined with real-world data and user feedback.

7. Contact

For questions about these terms, contact Amir Kelifa at akelifa5@gmail.com.